May 18, 2026
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7 min read
Oil is above $110, the 30-year is above 5%, and the Situation Room is open for business.
May 15, 2026
8 min read
Beijing delivered language on Hormuz but no mechanism to open it — and a $1.75 trillion IPO drops into that vacuum as early as today.
May 14, 2026
The cease-fire conversation and the rubble-clearing are happening at the same time — and markets haven't noticed either one.
May 13, 2026
Trump lands in Beijing with inflation at a three-year high and a new Fed chair about to take the wheel.
May 12, 2026
14 min read
Three converging forces — oil, the Fed, and a Beijing summit — are rewriting the risk map this week.
May 11, 2026
The counter-proposal Tehran submitted through Islamabad was never a peace offer — it was a territorial claim.
May 8, 2026
15 min read
On May 8, 2018, Trump exited the Iran deal. Today he's trying to sign a replacement — with weaker terms, at a higher price.
May 7, 2026
13 min read
The trade truce headlines are covering for three structural clocks that all expire this year.
May 6, 2026
Washington is wiring in an Iran war supplemental while the bond market is already telling it the price of more debt.
May 5, 2026
Iran struck UAE soil for the first time since the ceasefire. The gambit to free up Hormuz shipping made things worse before it could make them better.
May 4, 2026
The second-round inflation from an energy shock doesn't arrive with headlines — it arrives in the wages and rent data three quarters later.
May 1, 2026
Powell's last meeting produced four dissents — the most fractured FOMC since 1992. What Warsh inherits is not a stable institution.
