Active Situations
FOMC — Warsh Era
Escalating
The Fed held rates at 3.50–3.75% on June 17 in a 12-0 vote. The dot plot told a sharper story: nine of eighteen officials project at least one hike this year, with five projecting two. Warsh withheld his own dot. Markets sold off Wednesday, then snapped back Thursday as the VIX fell 11% to 16.40.
US Inflation
Escalating
May CPI rose to 4.2% year-over-year. PPI came in at 6.5%. Michigan consumer sentiment rose to 48.9 in June from May's record low, but one-year inflation expectations eased to 4.6% and the long-run outlook dropped to 3.4%. Energy costs remain the primary driver, with oil still above pre-deal levels.
US-Iran War
De-Escalating
Vance signed the US-Iran agreement on June 14, with Trump following on June 17, opening a 60-day ceasefire and nuclear talks. More than a dozen ships have crossed Hormuz since. Iran says it will charge $1.5 million to $2 million per transit in “fees,” despite Trump’s claim of toll-free passage. War-risk insurance sits at 4,000 times pre-crisis levels.
The REAL Reason Trump Is Invading Iran
For a moment…
Forget about Trump’s ties to Israel.
Forget about reports of Iran’s nuclear program.
Because my research has led me to believe we’re risking World War 3 with Iran for a completely different reason.
If you have even a single dollar invested in the U.S. stock market, this is going to directly impact you.
Private Credit Redemptions
Escalating
Cliffwater’s Q2 redemption requests hit 17% of shares, then capped at 5%. BCRED, Blue Owl, and Partners Group have all gated. The DOJ is probing BlackRock TCP Capital’s valuation methods, as reported in May. The FSB’s May report flagged $220 billion in bank credit lines to the sector and warned the real figure may be double.
SpaceX IPO
Holding
SPCX fell 18% over two sessions after hitting $225.64 on June 16, ending Thursday near $185 — still 37% above its $135 IPO price. Most insider shares stay locked through December 2026, with Musk locked through June 2027. Volume has cooled as opening-week demand fades.
Colombia Presidential Runoff
New
Colombia holds its presidential runoff today. Right-wing Abelardo de la Espriella won the first round with 43.7%, ahead of left-wing Iván Cepeda at 40.9%. De la Espriella leads in polls and prediction markets, running on a hard-line security platform. The outcome will shape US-Colombia security ties, trade policy, and counter-narcotics cooperation.
Ukraine-Russia War
Holding
No ceasefire. No talks scheduled. Russian forces advanced near eight settlements between June 9 and 16. Over the past year, Russia has gained roughly 1,427 square miles — about the size of Rhode Island. Europe continues to provide the bulk of military aid.
Trump Federal Workforce Overhaul
Holding
Executive Order 14410, signed June 3, moved about 8,000 senior federal positions into Schedule Policy/Career status. The June 10 compliance deadline has passed. Affected workers lose student loan repayment and recruitment incentives. Legal challenges remain pending with no new court filings.
Intelligence Briefing
Consumers Expect 4.6% Inflation. The Fed Hears Them.
CONFIDENCE: HIGH
What
Michigan consumer sentiment rose to 48.9 in early June, up 9% from May’s all-time low. The headline improved. The numbers underneath did not. One-year inflation expectations eased to 4.6%, down from 4.8% in May. The five-to-ten-year outlook dropped to 3.4% from 3.9% — still well above the Fed’s 2% target.
So What
The Fed tracks expectations the way a surgeon tracks vitals. When households expect prices to keep rising, they act on it — demanding higher wages, pulling spending forward, accepting higher prices from sellers. The cycle feeds itself. Nine of eighteen FOMC officials already project a hike this year. These numbers give them the data to follow through. The dot plot was not a trial balloon. It was the direction of travel, confirmed by the same consumers the Fed surveys every month.
Now What
The July Michigan survey drops July 11, one day after the June CPI print. If both confirm sticky inflation, September becomes a live hike meeting — the first since 2023.
The Real Private Credit Risk Sits on Bank Balance Sheets
CONFIDENCE: MODERATE
What
The Financial Stability Board’s May 6 report on private credit found $220 billion in drawn and undrawn bank credit lines flowing to the sector. Commercial data suggests the actual exposure is closer to $440 billion. The FSB described the feedback loop in plain terms: bank loans to private credit funds circle back as risk to the same banks that made them.
So What
Fund gating at Cliffwater, BCRED, Blue Owl, and Partners Group looks like a problem inside private markets. It does not stay there. When a fund gates, it draws on bank credit lines to cover what it owes. The same banks that extended those lines also hold fund shares as collateral on other deals. If valuations drop, the collateral shrinks and the credit lines get called. The DOJ is testing exactly that at BlackRock TCP Capital. When it happens, the stress jumps from private funds onto regulated bank balance sheets. This $1.8 trillion market was built in a low-rate world. Half the Fed now wants rates to go higher, not lower.
Now What
The BlackRock TCP Capital probe is the first federal inquiry into private credit valuations. A forced write-down there would pressure every peer fund to re-examine its own books. Watch for any NAV revision — it becomes the new floor for the sector.
Colombia Votes Today. Washington Is Watching.
CONFIDENCE: HIGH
What
Colombia’s presidential runoff takes place today, June 21. Right-wing attorney Abelardo de la Espriella faces left-wing Senator Iván Cepeda. De la Espriella took the first round with 43.7% to Cepeda’s 40.9%. Prediction markets price him near 55% to win.
So What
Colombia is Washington’s oldest security partner in Latin America. De la Espriella ran on hard-line security and counter-narcotics enforcement — a platform that aligns with the Trump administration. A win for him deepens military cooperation and stabilizes the bilateral trade framework. Cepeda has called for renegotiating the free trade agreement and shifting toward talks with armed groups. The outcome moves policy on mining and energy projects in the region’s fourth-largest economy.
Now What
Results are expected tonight. A razor-thin margin by either side raises the odds of a contested count. Watch the first 48 hours after polls close.
Under The Radar
OPEC Cuts Demand Forecast — Then Pumps More Oil
On June 11, OPEC lowered its 2026 global crude demand growth forecast to 970,000 barrels per day — the second straight downward revision. The same week, seven OPEC+ members added 188,000 barrels per day to their output quota for June. The increase mirrors previous monthly hikes but subtracts the portion previously allotted to the UAE after its exit from the bloc.
The cartel is adding supply into a market it expects to weaken. That is discipline fracturing in the open. Pair it with the Hormuz agreement, even at its current trickle speed. The supply outlook for the second half of 2026 is looser than oil prices suggest. When mine clearance picks up and insurance costs come down, the floor under crude shifts fast.
This revision got a single paragraph in most outlets, buried under Iran deal and SpaceX headlines. The demand side of the oil story is quieter. It also carries more weight for the back half of the year.
SOURCES: OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report, June 11, 2026; OPEC+ ministerial statement
The cartel is adding supply into a market it expects to weaken. That is discipline fracturing in the open. Pair it with the Hormuz agreement, even at its current trickle speed. The supply outlook for the second half of 2026 is looser than oil prices suggest. When mine clearance picks up and insurance costs come down, the floor under crude shifts fast.
This revision got a single paragraph in most outlets, buried under Iran deal and SpaceX headlines. The demand side of the oil story is quieter. It also carries more weight for the back half of the year.
SOURCES: OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report, June 11, 2026; OPEC+ ministerial statement
Final Assessment
Markets treated Thursday’s bounce as the all-clear. The VIX fell 11%. Stocks took back most of Wednesday’s FOMC losses. The long weekend started with what felt like relief.
The signal underneath tells a different story. Nine Fed officials project a hike. Consumer inflation expectations sit above 4%. Private credit funds are gating while bank exposure to the sector runs well past $200 billion. OPEC is pumping more oil into falling demand. None of these facts resolve over a holiday weekend.
The market has priced in a pause. It has not priced in a hike. That gap closes one of two ways: the data softens enough to shelve the dots, or September becomes the meeting that changes the rate cycle. The next CPI print lands July 10. Between now and then, it carries more weight than anything Warsh could say.
The signal underneath tells a different story. Nine Fed officials project a hike. Consumer inflation expectations sit above 4%. Private credit funds are gating while bank exposure to the sector runs well past $200 billion. OPEC is pumping more oil into falling demand. None of these facts resolve over a holiday weekend.
The market has priced in a pause. It has not priced in a hike. That gap closes one of two ways: the data softens enough to shelve the dots, or September becomes the meeting that changes the rate cycle. The next CPI print lands July 10. Between now and then, it carries more weight than anything Warsh could say.
Read time: ~4 min
The Recon Report · Daily Intelligence Briefing
