Oct 15, 2026
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6 min read
The SPR at a 1982 low. NATO F-16s over Romania. BofA admitted willful lawbreaking. Korean chips down 10%.
Oct 13, 2026
5 min read
$326.7 billion in unrealized losses enter bank earnings season at a 5.24% ten-year yield.
Oct 12, 2026
Diesel deal. Ceasefire claim. Graham Act waiver. Three moves, one timetable. Whether the law has teeth is the question this week answers.
Oct 11, 2026
Gulf production is 63% offline. Hormuz attacks just hit their weekly record. Refinery damage reports start Monday — and those determine whether this is a days-long disruption or a weeks-long one.
Oct 10, 2026
8 min read
The 10-year just touched its highest level since 2002, and Washington’s answer to Tehran comes with an election date attached.
Oct 9, 2026
4 min read
The FOMC meets October 27. A potential Iran strike lands on the Fed's desk one week before the election. No model runs all three variables at once.
Oct 8, 2026
Markets price October hike odds at 18%. Russia is stockpiling gold. The Graham Act has ten days and no enforcement plan.
Oct 6, 2026
Vance's Camp David session had the same roster as the one convened days before the last airstrikes on Iran.
Oct 5, 2026
The Roosevelt arrives late October — overlapping with midterms and Trump's stated window. Oil at $102 has not priced what follows when the pause ends.
Oct 4, 2026
Baghdad told Washington it was confident in a June 2027 deadline. Kata'ib Hezbollah rejected it the same day. The corridor from Tehran to Beirut just became permanent.
Oct 2, 2026
If UAE investigators connect the Omani copilot to Tehran, it hands Washington a reason to escalate at the exact moment Trump says a strike-or-negotiate decision is coming.
Oct 1, 2026
The 30-year closed at a 24-year high the same day core PCE beat consensus by 30 basis points. When good news cannot move the long end, the sell-off is no longer about inflation.
