Three Things Markets Didn't Price Thursday.

Warsh Jackson Hole Keynote Escalating

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh takes the Jackson Hole stage at 10am ET for his first keynote since taking office in May. Core PCE printed 3.3% Wednesday, giving him data to lean either way. Cleveland Fed President Hammack — one of three July dissenters — called for higher rates from Jackson Hole on Thursday. The dissent camp is not retreating.

Nvidia / AI Capex New

Nvidia posted $96.2 billion in Q2 revenue Wednesday evening, beating the $92.3 billion consensus. Data Center revenue hit $89 billion, up 117% year over year. Q3 guidance came in at $108 billion, well above forecasts. The stock rose 7.5% Thursday and lifted the Nasdaq 1.3%. All forward guidance excludes China data center compute revenue.

Strait of Hormuz De-escalating

Brent crude fell for a fourth straight session Thursday, dropping toward $87 from $94 a week ago. The Iran-Oman temporary corridor deal and softer-than-expected sanctions compressed the war premium. Tehran insists full reopening requires unmet US conditions. Weekly transit counts remain near 95, far below the pre-war baseline of 700.

US-Canada Trade War Escalating

Canada published its final counter-tariff list on August 25. Tariffs of 15%, 25%, and 50% hit more than 700 US products starting September 8, matching Section 338 rates dollar for dollar. The package covers CA$27.6 billion in trade. Trump has also posted 50% auto tariffs for January 1, 2027.

Iran Sanctions Holding

Operation Economic Outcast sanctioned nearly 60 entities on August 24. The rial hit a record low. But markets read the package as softer than the "Economic D-Day" billing — China's refiners were not directly designated. Brent's four-day decline confirms the oil market priced pressure, not severance.

Treasury Yields Holding

The 10-year yield ticked to 4.67% Thursday on firm economic data. The 30-year sits near 5.17%. Treasury's expanded buyback has not reversed the long-end drift. The General Account remains both a funding option and a depletion risk.

Ebola / DRC Escalating

The DRC reported 5,656 confirmed cases and 2,715 deaths as of August 24. Case counts rose 635 in the past week. The Bundibugyo strain has no approved vaccine. At 100 days, this is the largest Ebola outbreak in the country's history.

Warsh Steps Up With Three Dissenters at His Back

CONFIDENCE: HIGH

What

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh delivers his first Jackson Hole keynote at 10am ET. The symposium theme is "Financial Innovation: Implications for Payments and Policy." Core PCE came in at 3.3% year over year Wednesday — in line with estimates. Headline PCE hit 3.7%, a tenth above forecast.

So What

The July FOMC vote was 9-3 to hold at 3.50-3.75%. Logan, Hammack, and Kashkari all wanted a hike. Hammack went on CNBC Thursday from Jackson Hole and repeated that call. Core inflation at 3.3% is still 130 basis points above the 2% target — that gap is the dissenters' case. The in-line print removes urgency but not the argument. Warsh told reporters last month this speech was a "blank piece of paper." The bond market will weigh every word.

Now What

10am ET is the trigger. If Warsh focuses on fintech and avoids rate language, the relief rally extends into next week. If he flags slow progress on inflation or echoes Hammack, the 10-year reprices higher and Thursday's gains reverse by Monday.

Nvidia Posts Record Quarter — Without China

CONFIDENCE: HIGH

What

Nvidia reported fiscal Q2 revenue of $96.2 billion, beating the $92.3 billion consensus by $3.9 billion. Data Center reached $89 billion, up 117% year over year. Adjusted EPS: $2.22 versus the $2.09 estimate. Gross margins held at 75%. Q3 guidance: $108 billion, plus or minus 2%. Management projects 70% revenue growth for fiscal 2028.

So What

The beat is familiar — Nvidia has cleared estimates in each of the past four quarters. The number that changes the math is zero. All guidance excludes China data center compute revenue. Two years ago, China took roughly 20% of data center sales. That buyer is gone from the model. If sanctions ease, the $108 billion floor is conservative. If they hold, Nvidia has ceded that market to Huawei's Ascend line. Okta and CrowdStrike also beat Wednesday — Okta jumped 22.5%, CrowdStrike rose 19.7%. The AI capex thesis survived earnings season. Whether it survives rates above 4.5% is the next test.

Now What

Nvidia added more than $370 billion in market cap in a single session. If Warsh's speech this morning sends yields higher, that gain compresses by Monday. Watch for any reference to capital investment or AI infrastructure in the keynote.

Canada's Retaliation List Lands — 700 Items, September 8

CONFIDENCE: HIGH

What

Canada published its counter-tariff list on August 25. Starting September 8, tariffs of 15%, 25%, and 50% apply to more than 700 US products. The rates match US Section 338 and Section 232 levels dollar for dollar. The package covers CA$27.6 billion in bilateral trade.

So What

Section 338 was dormant for 96 years before the US invoked it in July, with tariffs taking effect August 22. Both governments are now building trade war terms around a statute designed as a temporary weapon. Auto parts, steel, electronics, and agricultural goods face the steepest rates. Border-state economies — Michigan, Ohio, New York — take the first hit. Ottawa designed the list to target the same congressional districts that would need to vote for any reversal.

Now What

September 8 is 11 days away. Trump has also posted 50% auto tariffs for January 1, 2027. No back-channel talks have surfaced. If the tariffs land without a deal, the escalation path steepens through year-end.

The Dissenter Who Spoke First

Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack went on CNBC from Jackson Hole Thursday and called for higher interest rates. She cited inflation running well above the 2% target. Hammack was one of three FOMC members who voted for a hike in July.

The timing is the signal. A sitting dissenter made her case on national television the day before the Chair's first keynote. That is not routine. It suggests the hawkish bloc is pressing its position — even after the in-line PCE print gave the majority cover to hold.

Thursday's headlines belonged to Nvidia. Hammack's interview ran in paragraph four.

SOURCE: CNBC, August 27, 2026

The scoreboard looks clean heading into the weekend. Core PCE at 3.3% — no shock. Nvidia beat every estimate and guided higher. Brent dropped $7 this week. The VIX closed at 14.45. Two of three catalysts landed, and the market liked both answers.

The third arrives at 10am. Three FOMC members voted to hike three weeks ago. Nothing in the data since then has weakened their case. Hammack used Thursday to reinforce it on camera.

Weekend watch: if Warsh validates the dissenters this morning, Monday's open will look nothing like Thursday's close. The market has priced patience. It has not priced agreement.

Read time: ~4 min

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