The Man Banning Congressional Trades Made 28,700 of His Own.

FOMC / Rate Path Escalating

The Fed hiked 25 basis points Wednesday to a target range of 3.75%–4.00%, its first increase since July 2023. The vote was 12-0. Chair Warsh called inflation "too high" and said the committee's "predominant focus" is price stability. The dot plot median landed at 4.125%, with 16 of 18 officials projecting at least one more hike this year. Goldman Sachs Asset Management expects December.

Treasury / Bond Yields Escalating

The 10-year yield held near 4.96% during Warsh's press conference after a brief dip earlier Wednesday. The 30-year fell to around 5.32%. Net interest on the federal debt is tracking above $1 trillion for FY2026. A second hike in December would lift the front end and drag longer maturities higher.

US-Iran War / Hormuz Holding

The House voted 220-204 Tuesday to end US military action against Iran, the third war powers resolution this summer. Rep. Thomas Massie introduced eight articles of impeachment against Defense Secretary Hegseth over the conflict. Brent eased to $107.82 on a surprise crude inventory build, though the Salalah talks remain postponed. Oman has kept its diplomatic channel with Tehran open throughout the conflict.

US-Canada Trade War Holding

No trade talks are scheduled. Ottawa's counter-tariffs on 629 US products remain active at rates of 15%, 25%, and 50%. Trump's executive order banning packaged Canadian alcohol imports takes effect September 29. New tariff additions — ATVs, hides, mattresses, motorboats — carry a 50% Section 338 duty.

Iraq Militia Deadline Escalating

Thirteen days remain before the September 30 deadline. US troops in northern Iraq are redeploying to Jordan and other regional bases. Analyst Sajad Jiyad told an Atlantic Council panel there will be no militia disarmament by the deadline. Baghdad has waffled on whether the date means disarmament or simply coalition departure.

Russia-Ukraine War Holding

Moscow remains open to trilateral talks but no date has been set. Russian drone and missile strikes on Kyiv resumed Monday after a weekend pause, killing five and wounding 35. Ukraine backed a US-proposed energy truce but tied it to infrastructure protection guarantees. The Graham sanctions bill, passed by the Senate 86-11, has cleared the House Rules Committee and is being debated on the House floor.

AI Frontier Slowdown New

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang and Meta's Mark Zuckerberg rejected calls to slow AI development Tuesday, breaking with Anthropic's Dario Amodei and OpenAI's Sam Altman. The SOX index remains down over 5% from its pre-essay level. No regulatory proposal has been attached to the debate. A voluntary agreement between the camps looks unlikely.

DRC Ebola Outbreak Escalating

Confirmed cases reached 7,258 with 3,510 deaths as of September 13, a 48.4% fatality rate. The outbreak has spread to 62 health zones across seven provinces. It is now the second-largest Ebola outbreak in recorded history. No approved vaccine exists for the Bundibugyo strain.

The Fed Hiked. The Dot Plot Says Do It Again.

CONFIDENCE: HIGH

What

The Federal Reserve raised its benchmark rate 25 basis points Wednesday to a range of 3.75%–4.00%, the first hike since July 2023. The vote was unanimous, 12-0. Chair Warsh said inflation is "too high and has been for too long" and declared the committee's "predominant focus is on the price stability side of our mandate." He did not submit his own projection to the dot plot.

So What

The hike was priced at 92% and moved nothing. The dot plot moved everything. The median projection landed at 4.125% — sixteen of 18 officials see at least one more hike this year, and Goldman Sachs Asset Management expects it in December. Warsh's choice not to file his own dot gives him room to push harder or ease off depending on how oil and data evolve. The Dow fell 718 points after the decision and conference. The 10-year yield held near 4.96%.

Now What

The next FOMC meeting is October 27–28, though markets assign low odds to a move there. The November CPI print will determine whether December stays live. If Brent holds above $100, a second hike is near-certain.

BOJ Opens Two-Day Meeting as Triple Witching Looms

CONFIDENCE: HIGH

What

The Bank of Japan began its two-day policy meeting Thursday. The decision is due Friday morning in Tokyo — late Thursday night in New York. All 52 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg expect a rate hike. Governor Ueda said at the G20 that the bank needs to "pay greater attention" to upside inflation risks. Friday is also triple witching — quarterly expiration of index futures, index options, and stock options.

So What

The last BOJ hike — July 2024 — triggered a violent carry-trade unwind that sent the Nikkei down 12% in a single session. Global equities followed. This time, the decision lands on triple witching, when roughly $6.2 trillion in options contracts expire. Two central banks raising rates in the same week, with Brent above $105, compounds the pressure on leveraged positions. The yen has already strengthened sharply in September as hike expectations built.

Now What

Watch USD/JPY overnight Thursday into Friday. If the BOJ hikes and signals further tightening, the carry trade unwinds. Last time, the S&P 500 dropped 6% in three sessions.

Huang and Zuckerberg Break With AI Safety Camp

CONFIDENCE: MODERATE

What

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang rejected calls to slow AI development at Salesforce's Dreamforce conference Tuesday. Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg took the same position. Both broke with Anthropic's Dario Amodei and OpenAI's Sam Altman, who on Saturday backed a coordinated plan to "pace the frontier" of advanced model development.

So What

The industry is now split between builders racing forward and labs urging coordinated restraint. Nvidia's order book depends on hyperscalers pushing ahead — a voluntary slowdown would cut GPU demand. Meta has the same incentive. The SOX index dropped 5.9% on Monday after Amodei's essay and has not recovered. With no voluntary deal likely, the question shifts to regulators and Congress, where legislation would take months and face uncertain votes.

Now What

Watch for a White House response. Trump criticized Amodei by name Monday. If the administration sides with the builders — as expected — regulatory risk shifts to Europe and remains a slow-moving Senate question at home.

28,700 Presidential Stock Trades — More Than All of Congress

Bloomberg reviewed Trump's financial disclosures and found the president made nearly 28,700 securities trades between his second inauguration and the end of June 2026. That is more than all of Congress combined during the same period. Capitol Hill lawmakers collectively reported about 22,200 transactions.

This is the same president who backed a House bill to ban congressional stock trading. Senator Warren has twice pushed for investigation, noting the trades correlate with policy announcements — tariffs, sanctions, military orders — each of which moves markets. Bessent defended the activity at a June Senate hearing, calling it the work of independent money managers. No independent review of the timing has been conducted.

The story landed the same week as the Fed hike, the Salalah collapse, and the AI industry split. A president whose trading volume dwarfs all 535 members of Congress — while he advocates banning their trades — is a structural question, not a one-day headline.

SOURCE: Bloomberg, September 15, 2026

The next 36 hours carry more concentrated risk than any window since the August 2024 carry-trade unwind.

The BOJ announces Friday morning in Tokyo. All 52 surveyed analysts expect a hike. Triple witching follows Friday afternoon in New York — roughly $6.2 trillion in options expire into a market already unsettled by the Fed's hawkish dot plot and a 10-year yield near 5%. Two central banks raising rates in the same week, with Brent above $105, is not a forgiving environment for leveraged positions.

The positions built this week will be tested by Friday's close. The exits will be smaller than the crowd that needs them.

Read time: ~4 min

The Recon Report  ·  Daily Intelligence Briefing