The Print
On April 4, 2025, the U.S. jobs report came in strong. Nonfarm payrolls rose by 228,000 in March 2025. The unemployment rate was 4.2%. Average hourly earnings rose 0.3% on the month and were up 3.8% over the year. Prior months were revised down, with January and February payrolls marked 48,000 lower in total than first reported.
On its face, this is the kind of data that usually supports “risk-on.” It signals a labor market that is still adding jobs at a solid pace, with wage growth that is not screaming but not dead either.
The Reaction That Mattered
The twist was not the number. It was what the market did with it.
In the minutes after the release, S&P 500 e-mini futures were still pointing to a large drop, even after trimming losses. At the same time, rates and FX acted like they had to respect the data. The 10-year Treasury yield was cited around 3.9214%, and the 2-year around 3.545%. The dollar index was slightly higher.
The quote that captured the mood was blunt: the market “isn’t paying a lot of attention” to the jobs report and is in “panic mode.”
So “weak response” does not mean “small move.” It means the jobs surprise did not get to set direction.
The Bigger Force On The Screen
That same day, markets were already in a tariff-led selloff. Reuters described a sharp global rout after sweeping U.S. tariff plans, and then a fresh hit when China said it would impose additional levies of 34% on American goods.
By the close, the story was about damage, not data. Reuters reported that S&P 500 companies had wiped out about $5 trillion in value over two days after the tariff announcement, with investors fleeing to government bonds. The Associated Press also described a steep drop in U.S. stocks on April 4, 2025 despite the strong jobs report, as tariff retaliation escalated recession fears.
Observation: the market had a dominant narrative and a dominant flow. The payrolls print arrived as a guest, not a host.
What Positioning Looks Like In Public
When a clean headline fails to change price, it often means the market is not in a “debate” state. It is in a “clearance” state.
That can happen for simple reasons. Risk limits tighten when volatility rises. Portfolios get forced back toward targets. Hedges get added because they must, not because someone just changed their mind. In that setting, a strong jobs number becomes backward-looking comfort. It may even be framed as “historic data” with less weight than the forward shock.
This is where positioning matters more than the story. Not because the story is false, but because the market is busy managing exposure that was built under different assumptions.
Inference, not fact: the split reaction across stocks, rates, and FX is consistent with different pockets of the market solving different problems at once. Stocks were trying to de-risk a policy shock. Rates were still repricing the near-term path that a strong jobs print implies.
A Simple Read On The Signal
If you want one clean takeaway from April 4, 2025, it is this. The jobs report did not “fail.” It got crowded out.
That crowding-out is itself a signal. It tells you the market is not short of information. It is short of balance sheet and confidence. In those moments, even good news can land like a dull thud because it cannot relax the constraint that is doing the moving.
Why This Still Matters
Even later, you can see the same pattern in quieter form. In January 2026, Reuters described the labor market as “low-hiring, low-firing,” with jobless claims still low in level terms.
In regimes like that, macro prints can be “fine” while markets remain jumpy for other reasons. The reconnaissance frame stays useful: watch for sessions when data is clear but price refuses to follow. The refusal is often the message.
