Corrective low established with strong bullish response.
Channel breakout signals improving demand momentum.
50-day average key for confirmed trend reversal.
100-day average continues to act as support.
Fibonacci extensions point to higher resistance targets.
Benchmark Leadership and Sector Influence
The VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) holds positions in many of the leading semiconductor companies. It has its largest positions in NVIDIA Corp (NVDA) at 19.4% of the total portfolio, and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSM), as its second-largest holding at 11.6%. SMH is considered a benchmark and barometer for the tech sector and how investors are perceiving risk and positioning capital.
SMH ETF Daily Chart
Iran's New Leader Just Said Something That Should Terrify Every American
Iran's new Supreme Leader made an announcement that could trigger the largest financial crisis since 2008.
"Iran will keep the Strait of Hormuz shut as leverage against the United States."
40% of the world's oil passes through the Strait of Hormuz. It's been effectively closed since the Iran war started.
Oil just crossed $100 per barrel.
But here's the part that should terrify you: Every oil crisis in modern history has ended the same way.
1973 Oil Crisis: Gold surged from $35 to $200 (571% gain)
1979 Oil Crisis: Gold exploded from $200 to $850 (425% gain)
This time is different. This time could be exponentially bigger.
The U.S. government has 8,133 tonnes of gold sitting in Fort Knox, valued on the books at $42.22 per ounce.
With gold trading above $5,000, that's a $750 billion accounting error.
President Trump has the legal authority to fix it with a single signature.
When he does, gold wouldn't just rally. It would explode to unprecedented levels.
$7,000? $10,000? $15,000?
The smart money knows this. They're positioning now, while most Americans are focused on gas prices.
That's why I've partnered with American Alternative Assets to bring you The Great Gold Reset.
Corrective Low and Early Reversal Signals
It appears that a corrective low of $358.86 was established, as it led to a five-week closing high, along with a weekly breakout and an attempted trendline breakout attempt this week. Support near the low was confirmed by the confluence of a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of a prior downswing and a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of a shorter upswing. Nonetheless, the subsequent bullish response following that low quickly reclaimed both the 20-week moving average and the 100-day moving average, signaling improving momentum.
SMH ETF Weekly Chart
Channel Breakout and Key Resistance Levels
A breakout of the falling channel that formed during the current correction began to take shape on Monday, with a daily close above the top boundary line of the channel. Then on Tuesday, a bullish outside day formed, ending at a 24-day high, further confirming improving demand. One barrier remained, the 50-day moving average at $398.94. A decisive advance above the interim lower swing high at $402.50 would signal a reversal of the bearish trend structure and confirm a reclaim of the 50-day moving average. That would put SMH in a position to potentially trigger a continuation of the broader uptrend above the prior high of $427.94.
Trend Support and Momentum Behavior
The 100-day moving average has marked dynamic support for the bull trend in SMH since it was last reclaimed in May 2025. Although the recent correction briefly settled below the 100-day average, the price didn’t fall far before it was reclaimed. This is constructive bullish behavior, indicating that buyers remain in charge and the trend may continue, supported by a potential momentum expansion following the channel breakout.
Upside Targets and Fibonacci Confluence
At a minimum, a successful upside breakout could lead to a test of resistance near the top of a near-term rising trend channel. Two Fibonacci extension levels provide a guide: the 127.2% extension of the recent bearish correction at $446.46, and the 161.8% extension at $470.01. That higher level defines a potential confluence zone, as it aligns with both the top of the short-term rising channel and the upper boundary of a long-term rising channel converging in the same price area.
Support Levels and Near-Term Risk Signals
The lower short-term rising trend channel is key near-term support, along with the 100-day moving average, now at $381.68. If SMH stays above those indicators, buyers remain in charge and higher targets are possible. This also means that these levels are likely to be closely monitored by traders for signs of support during pullbacks. In that regard, Tuesday’s low of $389.64 successfully tested support at the 20-day average before closing in its strongest position in five weeks, reinforcing the improving demand profile first noted at the beginning of this analysis.
