NVIDIA Breakdown Signals Deeper Correction Toward Key Support

NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) stock has started to show a series of bearish signs that could lead to a deeper pullback. NVIDIA is the dominant supplier of GPUs and AI accelerators, controlling roughly 80-90% of the key GPU and AI-chip markets used in data centers and high-performance computing. The stock fell to a six-week low of $171.72 and ended the week at its lowest weekly closing price since early September, closing at $172.70. In addition, a break of the 200-day moving average was triggered on Friday and the week ended near the lows of the period, confirming a failure at that key average.

Shares of NVDA have been consolidating near highs since July, forming a 34-week topping pattern. Last week’s bearish price action triggered an initial breakdown from the pattern, and it was confirmed with a close below its lower boundary line. The formation shows distribution and once triggered to the downside sellers can become more aggressive.

Moreover, last week’s decline of 4.19% followed the first significant pullback after a breakdown below a long-term uptrend line and 20-week moving average three weeks ago. Price was consistently rejected to the downside during that period, reinforcing weakness. Once that occurs, the decline below those two trend indicators tends to gain momentum. Key support levels of the top formation have yet to be broken, but each subsequent breakdown would add further bearish confirmation. There are three critical levels, starting with a recent higher swing low at $171.03. Support at the middle of the top is at $169.55, and a higher swing low from September at $164.07. A 38.2% Fibonacci retracement will also be completed if that low is reached.

It is the combination of bearish signals that suggests NVDA stock could fall to a more significant support zone before buyers step back in more aggressively. The low boundary of the current downside range, based on available evidence, is the 100-week moving average, currently at $145.78 and rising. This is because it was clearly recognized by the market during the prior bearish correction that ended in April 2025 at that same average.

Since the 100-week moving average is rising, it is heading towards an initial downside target zone from $152.89 to $149.70. That range is defined by a prior high from January 2025 and the 50% retracement of the most recent upswing, respectively. A 50% retracement of the prior advance is both normal and common. The swing low in April 2025 was very close to a 50% retracement, which was completed before triggering a strong advance into new highs.

Despite the downside potential for NVDA stock, the 100-week average is now only about 16% lower, which would not be unprecedented. Since the long-term ascending channel was broken to the downside, the other long-term trend indicator - the 100-week average - now becomes a key lower target parameter for NVDA stock.

On the upside, rallies towards prior support zones are likely to find resistance and turn back down. Initial resistance is around the 200-day moving average at $178.44, currently. A lower swing high at $188.88 is above the cluster of several moving averages and provides an upper boundary since it is part of the trend structure.