Bull Breakouts Signal Higher Targets for S&P 500, Nasdaq

Both the S&P-500 (SPX) and Nasdaq-100 (NDX) confirmed bull breakouts last week, signaling a likely move higher. The SPX ended the week with a new trend high breakout to $6,978 before confirming the move with a record high weekly close above the prior trend high of $6,946 from two weeks ago. That followed a 16.4% gain for the SPX in 2025. Meanwhile, the NDX is working on a breakout of a small symmetrical triangle that will confirm above a lower swing high at $25,835. In 2026, the NDX gained 20.2%.

Weekly Chart – SPX

In late-October, the SPX reached a high of $6,920, which was a little shy of a 161.8% Fibonacci extension of the February 2025 correction from October at $6,820. A pullback to support near the 20-week average followed before buyers took back control. Further strength was indicated once the 10-week average was reclaimed in late-November. After that it remained dynamic support for most of the following six weeks, including last week when a new record weekly closing high was reached.

There is a rising trend channel in the SPX, and it is now close to the upper boundary. The top boundary line of the formation was almost touched during the advance in October thereby confirming resistance near that line. Last week’s breakout exited a three-month price range near the top of the trend. Subsequently, a decisive breakout above last week’s high of $6,978 will trigger a bullish continuation of the trend and confirm a breakout above the 161.8% Fibonacci extension.

Possible higher targets are derived from Fibonacci extensions of the previous two bearish corrections, one in 2021 and then in 2025. The confluence of two indicators at $7,460 and $7,755 in relative proximity provides initial upside target zones.

Identifying potential targets helps with trade management. But risk is managed by identifying changes in the characteristics of the trend early. Initial support for the SPX is near the 10-week average, now at $6,820. Just below there is the 20-week average, at $6,730 currently. January’s low is at $6,824 and now an important short-term support level.

In the case of the NDX, it confirmed a breakout above the top boundary line of a small symmetrical triangle bull pennant last week, with a weekly close above the line and at a 10-week closing high. In fact, the NDX has had only one week with a higher close and that was at the trend high in late-October. Strength was also indicated by a launch from support near the 10-week average on the breakout day. That weekly low of $25,355 is now key short-term support for the trend.

Weekly Chart – NDX

The pennant formed in a bullish position near trend highs and at support of the 20-week average. Nevertheless, further confirmation of strength is needed to confirm the sustainability of the breakout with an expectation of new trend highs. A daily close above the lower swing high at $25,835 is the next validation, followed by a rise above the $26,182 record high. Since $25,835 is also the high for December and an inside doji month, a monthly breakout will also be triggered, providing further evidence that the bulls are back in charge.

An initial upside target looks to be around $26,815 to $26,997, consisting of the 127.2% Fibonacci extension of the recent pullback and a 261.8% extension of the bearish correction begun from the 2021 peak, respectively. Depending on when the price zone is approached, a top channel line can assist in spotting a potential resistance zone.